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A subset of the seven items assessing beliefs about gambling evaluates fallacious thought (i.e., “I don’t have more chances to win at the lottery if I choose the numbers myself”). •Inter-rater: In general, third party assessment of gambling fallacies would appear to be a less direct and efficient way of assessing fallacies compared to a set of questions the person answers themselves. Additionally, there’s no set amount of money a person needs to lose to have a gambling problem. Hence, the relationship with gambling and/or problem gambling will always be relatively weak. GABS scores were significantly correlated with gambling engagement and problem gambling scores. •External: External validity of a gambling fallacies instrument is demonstrated by the generalizability of its scores across gambling situations as well as generalizability of its application across different age groups, educational levels, clinical and non-clinical populations, countries, and cultures. •Discriminant: A gambling fallacies instrument needs not only to show association with related constructs, but lower and/or lack of association with theoretically unrelated behaviour, concepts, or measures (e.g. marital satisfaction, perceived stress, etc.). This was the final episode of the popular show Gunsmoke. Another example is the perception that winning the lottery is more likely than it actually is due to the number of people a person is aware of that have won the lottery over the years. The consequence of this failure to take sample size into account is the person failing to understand that winning is common with small samples but increasingly rare with extended play. Players must make sure they play at licenced and regulated casinos online. What I won't talk about in this series is anything about the maths of random number generators, beyond explaining how the algorithms are implmented. As will be discussed in greater depth later, the number of factors underlying gambling fallacies is somewhat unclear as most existing comprehensive instruments have included general non-fallacious biases, attitudes, and/or behaviours in the instruments, which could account for multiple factors being identified. A brief description of each of these instruments as a candidate for a comprehensive, reliable, and valid gambling fallacies instrument is provided below. The same search of the literature described earlier identified 18 instruments intended to either comprehensively assess gambling fallacies, a subset of gambling fallacies, a specific fallacy relevant to gambling (e.g. belief in luck), and/or to assess gambling fallacies as part of a broader gambling-related instrument. How are Gambling Fallacies Best Measured? Examples of this are the belief that an electronic gambling machine that has not paid out in some time is increasingly likely to pay out, and/or that a machine that has just paid out a large win is less likely to do so again in the near future. They often robbed banks; in fact, what led to the ultimate downfall of the gang was an 1876 bank robbery in Minnesota that went wrong, with only Jesse and his brother Frank remaining alive and at large after. One gambling-related manifestation of this bias is the belief that participating in commercial forms of gambling is a good way of making money. Although casino gaming has been legal for less than two decades, Pennsylvania is second only to Nevada in commercial casino revenues. •Parallel forms: If different versions of a gambling fallacies instrument exist, then the results of the two instruments should be strongly correlated with each other. These investigators also found the scale to be composed of two factors: a general belief in luck and a belief in being personally lucky. Similarly, instruments that include questions on general attitudes or motivations (e.g. gambling to win money), biases (e.g. choosing to focus more on wins than losses), and/or behaviour (e.g. always wearing red while gambling; chasing losses) are not measuring fallacies in the absence of a direct attribution to a false belief (e.g. playing electronic gambling machines because it is a good way of making money; wearing red because it improves luck). •Test-retest: Stable answers to erroneous beliefs about gambling over a short period of time is a good index of reliability, as it provides reassurance that the questions are clear and that the answers are definitive and speak to a belief that has some stability. The Cronbach alpha of all factors except the ‘cynicism about winning’ factor was good (at or above 0.80). The ’illusion of control’ factor was found to significantly predict gambling frequency, but was not a significant predictor of problem gambling. Internal consistency was good (Cronbach a ranging from 0.78 to 0.85 depending on the study).

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